[arsc-ml 49] ARSC-mlからのお知らせ

[nhosoe ＠ grips.ac.jp]

□名前:細江宣裕
□所属:政策研究大学院大学
□会員:会員
□お知らせの内容:研究会関連
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□内容
　:各位
お世話になります。
下記の通りポリシー・モデリング・ワークショップを開催いたします。
ふるってご参加ください。
http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~nhosoe/pmw/index.html
細江宣裕

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第3回

日時: 2018年10月20日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4A

14:00-15:50

講演者: 土居直史氏 (札幌学院大学)

題目: Empirical Study of Per-passenger and Per-flight Airport Charges

概要: This study empirically investigates how airport charges affect airfares, flight frequency, and welfare. It estimates a structural model endogenizing airfares and flight frequency by using the data on Japanese domestic routes and conducts simulation analyses. It is found that both types of charges decrease flight frequency. By contrast, while an increase in per-passenger charges significantly raises airfares, per-flight charges have little effect on them. Simulation results suggest that per-passenger charges are superior to per-flight charges from the viewpoints of both airline profits and the social surplus under the conditions of the analyzed market, in which passengers sufficiently evaluate flight frequency.

16:10-18:00

講演者: 中嶋亮氏 (慶應義塾大学)

題目: Examining Patent Examiners: Present Bias, Procrastination and Time Pressure

概要: This research studies present-biased procrastination of U.S. patent examiners. We describe patent examination work as a problem of intertemporal effort allocation by the agent who must complete a task in a fixed deadline, and adopt the standard two-parameter model (β-δ model) to characterize a conflict between short-run and long-run preferences. We apply the model to a large-scale administrative data from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office with information on daily transaction history of patent applications in the field of Biotechnology and Organic Chemistry. The empirical results support evidence for procrastination by present-biased patent examiners.

第4回

日時: 2018年11月17日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

14:00-15:50

講演者: 加納和子氏 (早稲田大学)

題目: 実質為替レートと通貨体制 : 1972年沖縄返還からの示唆

概要: 本稿は，異なる通貨体制が個別小売商品レベルの実質為替レートに対して与える効果を識別・推定する上で,1972年5月15日の沖縄本士返還前後に流球・沖縄が経験した3つの通貨体制―米ドル固定相場制，米ドル変動相場制，および日本円共通通貨制―が理想的かつ強力な自然実験環境を提供することを，第2次世界大戦後の流球・沖縄の経済史を概観することで議論する．この自然実験の実装のため，本稿は沖縄本士返還前後に沖縄と日本本士において実施された小売物価統計調査に着目する．食料品41銘柄に埜づいた本稿の計量分析から，米ドル変動相場制は統計的にも経済的にも個別商品レベルの実質為替レート調整に対し有意な阻害効果を持つこと，また個別商品レベルの実質為替レート調整を促進する共通通貨効果の仮説は，経済的には有意ではないことが観察される．本稿の自然実験からの結論は，名目為替レート変動の国内小売価格への不完全なパススルーを示唆する開放経済ニューケインジアンモデルの実証的妥当性を支持している．

16:10-18:00

講演者: 遠山祐太氏 (早稲田大学)

題目: Dynamic Incentives and Equilibrium in Cap-and-Trade Regulation

概要: Regulatory design of cap-and-trade program involves dynamic considerations: A regulator set up a schedule of permit allocation, which often decreases over time, and decides whether it allows for saving/borrowing of emissions permits across periods. Given such dynamic policy design, regulated firms make abatement and compliance decisions in a forward-looking way. This paper studies dynamic incentives of those firms and equilibrium outcomes under cap-and-trade regulation. I first develop a dynamic equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms that characterizes abatement investment and permit trading subject to transactions costs. I estimate the model using the data from the US Acid Rain Program and evaluate the performance of cap-and-trade through counterfactual simulations. I found that, given a fixed level of aggregate emissions, the costs of reducing emissions under cap-and-trade are 16.6% lower than a uniform standard. Although environmental damages from SO2 emissions increase due to the change in the geographic distribution of emissions, the net-benefit of the cap-and-trade is positive. I also examine the potential gains from trade in the absence of transaction costs. I find more dispersed patterns of investment and less banking of permits, both of which result in cost savings.

-- 
Nobuhiro Hosoe, Ph. D.
Professor, Director of Admissions Office
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato, Tokyo 106-8677, Japan
Tel: +81-3-6439-6129, Fax: +81-3-6439-6010, E-mail: nhosoe ＠ grips.ac.jp
URL: http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~nhosoe/
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Textbook of CGE Modeling: Programming and Simulations
[JPN (2nd edition): 4130402722], [ENG: 0230248144], [CHN: 7565415316]
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